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The #1 Misconception in the Homebuying Process
After over a year of moderating home prices, it appears home value appreciation is about to reaccelerate. Skylar Olsen, Director of Economic Research at Zillow, explained in a recent article:
“A year ago, a combination of a government shutdown, stock market slump and mortgage rate spike caused a long-anticipated inventory rise. That supposed boom turned out to be a short-lived mirage as buyers came back into the market and more than erased the inventory gains. As a natural reaction, the recent slowdown in home values looks like it’s set to reverse back.”
CoreLogic, in their January 2020 Market Pulse Report, agrees with Olsen, projecting home value appreciation in all fifty states this year. Here’s the breakdown:
- 21 states appreciating 5% or more
- 26 states appreciating between 3-5%
- Only 3 states appreciating less than 3%
The Misconception
Many believe when real estate values are increasing, owning a home becomes less affordable. That misconception is not necessarily true.
In most cases, homes are purchased with a mortgage. The current mortgage rate is a major component of the affordability equation. Mortgage rates have fallen by almost a full percentage point since this time last year.
Another major piece of the equation is a buyer’s income. The median family income has risen by 5% over the last year, contributing to the affordability factor.
Black Knight, in their latest Mortgage Monitor, addressed this exact issue:
“Despite the average home price increasing by nearly $13,000 from just over a year ago, the monthly mortgage payment required to buy that same home has actually dropped by 10% over that same span due to falling interest rates…
Put another way, prospective homebuyers can now purchase a $48K more expensive home than a year ago while still paying the same in principal and interest, a 16% increase in buying power.”
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, realize that homes are still affordable even though prices are increasing. As the Black Knight report concluded:
“Even with home price growth accelerating, today’s low-interest-rate environment has made home affordability the best it’s been since early 2018.”
Where Homebuyers Are Heading By Generation [INFOGRAPHIC]
![Where Homebuyers Are Heading By Generation [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM](https://desireestanley.com/files/2020/01/20200117-MEM-1-1046x2841.jpg)
![Where Homebuyers Are Heading By Generation [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM](https://files.mykcm.com/2020/01/17060847/20200117-MEM-1-1046x2841.jpg)
Some Highlights:
- Whether capitalizing on job opportunities, affordability, or warm-weather places to retire, Americans are making moves to these top cities to take advantage of the strength in the current housing market.
- A strong economy and lower mortgage rates have made it easier for many would-be buyers to get into the market. According to realtor.com, it just depends on which market.
- To find the top market in our area, let’s get together.
The 2 Surprising Things Homebuyers Really Want
In a market where current inventory is low, it’s normal to think buyers might be willing to give up a few desirable features in their home search in order to make finding a house a little easier. Don’t be fooled, though – there’s still an interest in the market for some key upgrades. Here’s a look at the two surprising things buyers seem to be searching for in today’s market, and how they’re impacting new home builds.
Homebuyers Are Not Giving Up Their Garages
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) recently released an article showing the percentage of new single-family homes completed in 2018. The data reveals,
- 64% of new homes offer a 2-car garage
- 21% have a garage large enough to hold 3 or more cars
- 7% have a 1-car garage
- 7% do not include a garage or carport
- 1% have a carport
The following map represents this breakdown by region:
Evidently, a garage is something homebuyers are looking for in their searches, but that’s not all.
Homebuyers Are Not Giving Up Their Patios
Patios are on the radar for buyers as well. Community areas are often common amenities in new neighborhoods, but as it turns out, private outdoor spaces are quite desirable too. NAHB also found that,
“Of the roughly 876,000 single-family homes started in 2018, 59.4% came with patios…This is the highest the number has been since NAHB began tracking the series in 2005.”
As shown in the graph below, the number of new homes built with patios has been increasing for the past 9 years. Clearly, they’re a desirable feature for new homeowners too.
Bottom Line
Homebuyers are looking for garage space and outdoor patio living. If you’re a homeowner thinking of selling a house with these amenities, it appears buyers are willing to spring for those key features. Let’s get together today to determine the current value and demand for your home.
Housing Inventory Vanishing: What Is the Impact on You?
The real estate market is expected to do very well this year as mortgage rates remain at historic lows. One challenge to the housing industry is the lack of homes available for sale. Last week, move.com released a report showing that 2020 is beginning with the lowest available housing inventory in two years. The report explains:
“Last month saw the largest year-over-year decline of housing inventory in almost three years with a dramatic 12 percent decline, pushing the number of homes for sale in the U.S. to the lowest level since January 2018.”
The report also revealed that the decline in inventory stretches across all price points, as shown in the following graph:
George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com, explains how this drop in available homes for sale comes at a time when more buyers are expected to enter the market:
“The market is struggling with a large housing undersupply just as 4.8 million millennials are reaching 30-years of age in 2020, a prime age for many to purchase their first home. The significant inventory drop…is a harbinger of the continuing imbalance expected to plague this year’s markets, as the number of homes for sale are poised to reach historically low levels.”
The question is: What does this mean to you?
If You’re a Buyer…
Be patient during your home search. It may take time to find a home you love. Once you do, however, be ready to move forward quickly. Get pre-approved for a mortgage, be ready to make a competitive offer from the start, and understand that a shortage in inventory could lead to the resurgence of bidding wars. Calculate just how far you’re willing to go to secure a home if you truly love it.
If You’re a Seller…
Realize that, in some ways, you’re in the driver’s seat. When there is a shortage of an item at the same time there is a strong demand for that item, the seller of that item is in a good position to negotiate. Whether it is the price, moving date, possible repairs, or anything else, you’ll be able to demand more from a potential purchaser at a time like this – especially if you have multiple interested buyers. Don’t be unreasonable, but understand you probably have the upper hand.
Bottom Line
The housing market will remain strong throughout 2020. Understand what that means to you, whether you’re buying, selling, or doing both.
2020 Luxury Market Forecast
By the end of last year, many homeowners found themselves with more equity than they realized, and at the same time, their wages were increasing. When those two factors unite, it can spark homeowners to think about making a move to a larger or more expensive home in the luxury space. That said, now is a perfect opportunity to take a look at the forecast for the 2020 luxury market.
Three Things to Think About in the 2020 Luxury Housing Market
1. Prices
The U.S. economy is strong today, with buying opportunities throughout the luxury end of the market. Thomas Veraguth, Strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management, says in Barrons.com,
“There’s a good link between luxury real estate prices and [economic] growth.”
Available inventory is a key element that can impact home prices. In the upper range, the inventory is greater in comparison to the entry-level market, making moving up to a luxury home a growing reality for many buyers right now.
2. Activity in the Market
With more buying opportunities at the higher end, we should start to see an increase in activity. The same article states,
“Affluent homebuyers will start to come out of the woodwork as they find rising luxury rents less appealing and sellers get even more negotiable on price.”
Buyers looking in the luxury market are taking the opportunity to negotiate on price in a segment where there are more choices, too. According to the Luxury Market Report, homes sold for an average of 96.94% of the list price in December.
Buyers are also getting more for their money with greater purchasing power due to the current low-interest rates.
3. Buyers Are Coming Back
Keep in mind, buyers are often sellers too, especially those looking to move up. Homeowners with an entry-level home can take advantage of the inventory shortage at the lower end of the market, thus driving higher sales prices for their current homes. Combined with growing equity in the homes they’re listing, it’s a great time for those who are ready to make a luxury move.
The extra equity and greater purchasing power are bringing many buyers back to the market. The same article mentioned that,
“We’ve already seen buyers who’ve been on the sidelines for two years tread back into the market.”
Bottom Line
If you’re considering entering the luxury market, 2020 is shaping up to be a great year for those who are ready to make that move. Let’s get together to set your real estate plan for the year.
Homes Are More Affordable Today, Not Less Affordable
There’s a current narrative that owning a home today is less affordable than it has been in the past. The reason some are making this claim is that house prices have substantially increased over the last several years.
It’s not, however, just the price of a home that matters.
Homes, in most cases, are purchased with a mortgage. The current mortgage rate is a major component of the affordability equation. Mortgage rates have fallen by over a full percentage point since December 2018. Another major piece of the affordability equation is a buyer’s income. The median family income has risen by approximately 3% over the last year.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases a monthly Housing Affordability Index. The latest index shows that home affordability is better today than at almost any point over the last 30 years. The index determines how affordable homes are based on the following:
“A Home Affordability Index value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index of 120 signifies that a family earning the median income has 20 percent more than the level of income needed pay the mortgage on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment so that the monthly payment and interest will not exceed 25 percent of this level of income (qualifying income).”
The higher the index, therefore, the more affordable homes are. Here is a graph showing the index since 1990:
Obviously, affordability was better during the housing crash when distressed properties – foreclosures and short sales – sold at major discounts (2009-2015). Outside of that period, however, homes are more affordable today than any other year since 1990, except for 2016.
The report on the index also includes a section that calculates the mortgage payment on a median-priced home as a percentage of the median national income. Historically, that percentage is just above 21%. Here are the percentages since June of 2018:
Again, we can see that affordability is much better today than the historical average and has been getting better over the last year and a half.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re thinking about buying your first home or moving up to the home of your dreams, don’t let the false narrative about affordability prevent you from moving forward. From an affordability standpoint, this is one of the best times to buy in the last 30 years. Give me a call today at 408-465-9290 or email me to go over your real estate goals. Buying a home takes time, let’s start now to get you into your home!
The Biggest Issue Facing Housing Next Year
This coming year the housing market will be defined by 3 things- inventory, interest rates, and appreciation. But the biggest issue the housing market will face in 2020 is an inventory shortage. There aren’t enough homes on the market for buyers, especially on the lower end of the market. This is a topic that has come up frequently within the past several months.
Based on what is forecasted, we know that interest rates are projected to remain low and that appreciation is expected to continue as we move into 2020. Additionally, the upcoming election will provoke many unique perspectives on the health of the US housing market. The challenge will be understanding what is actually happening and how you can best position yourself if you are thinking of buying or selling your home.
Here are several perspectives to consider on the inventory issue facing housing next year:
According to realtor.com:
“Despite increases in new construction, next year will once again fail to bring a solution to the inventory shortage that has plagued the housing market since 2015. Inventory could reach a historic low as a steady flow of demand, especially for entry level homes, and declining seller sentiment combine to keep a lid on sales transactions.”
Diana Olick at CNBC:
“Inventory has been falling annually for five straight months, after it recovered slightly toward the end of last year, due to a spike in mortgage rates. Rates began falling again by spring of this year. Homebuilders have been increasing production slowly, but it’s not enough to meet the increasingly strong demand.”
George Ratiu, Senior Economist with realtor.com
“As millennials — the largest cohort of buyers in U.S. history — embrace homeownership and take advantage of this year’s unexpectedly low mortgage rates, demand is outstripping supply, causing inventory to vanish. The housing shortage is felt acutely at the entry-level of the market, where most millennials are looking to break into the market for their first home.”
Bottom Line
The most important thing you can do is understand what is happening in your local market. You may not be able to avoid some of the issues brought on by low inventory, but you can be educated and prepared. Let’s connect and discuss the options that make the most sense for you and your family.
Holiday Gifts Are Not the Only Hot Things Right Now
Black Friday is behind us and holiday gifts are flying off the shelves in stores and online. Unlike last year, however, there’s another type of buyer that is very active this winter – the homebuyer.
Each month, ShowingTime releases their Showing Index, which tracks the average number of appointments received on active U.S. house listings. The latest index revealed:
“Traffic was more active once again compared to 2018, as the nation saw its third straight month of higher year-over-year showing activity…The 5.5% increase in showings nationwide was the largest jump in activity during the now three-month streak of year-over-year increases vs. 2018.”
The same report indicates showings increased in every region of the country:
- The South increased by 10.8%
- The West increased by 8.6%
- The Northeast increased by 3.8%
- The Midwest increased by 1.5%
Why is the traffic more active?
One of the main reasons buyer traffic has increased year-over-year is that mortgage rates have fallen dramatically. According to Freddie Mac, the average mortgage rate last December was 4.64%. Today, the rate is almost a full percentage point lower!
Bottom Line
There are first-time, move-up, and move-down buyers actively looking for the home of their dreams this winter. If you’re thinking of selling your house in 2020, you don’t need to wait until the spring to do it. Your potential buyer may be searching for a home in your neighborhood right now.
INTERO INTRODUCES PINNACLE HOME SERVICES PROGRAM FOR SELLERS
Official Press Release:
CUPERTINO, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Intero, a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate and a wholly-owned subsidiary of HomeServices of America, Inc., is proud to announce the introduction of PINNACLE, a premium designer-curated home preparation service with zero out-of-pocket cost to sellers until their home closes escrow.
Available for clients working with an Intero agent, PINNACLE provides vast, customized home-preparation options, including, but not limited to, cosmetic updates, general repairs, professional staging services, window treatments, landscaping, decluttering and moving and packing services.
Sellers who opt into Intero’s PINNACLE program will interface with their own project coordinator. These project coordinators do the work of assessing what needs to be done and coordinate the job from start to finish with local contractors. The program also stands out for providing tailored relocation services to seniors who need additional support when moving.
“We’re proud to bring the PINNACLE program to the market,” said Brian Crane, Chief Executive Officer of Intero. “The PINNACLE program gives Intero agents and clients a progressive and effective tool to enhance the condition of the home prior to going to the market, without the upfront out-of-pocket expense. This PINNACLE program is a true differentiator in the marketplace for Intero and will add to Intero’s ability to help seller clients achieve the best results.”
The PINNACLE program is available today for any seller with a signed listing agreement with an Intero sales associate. To get more information, please visit www.interopinnacle.com or call me at 408.465.9290 to learn how you can take advantage of this fantastic option when you’re ready to sell!
Is A Bigger House Within Your Budget?
At this time of year, many families come together to celebrate the season. It’s also the time when many realize their homes are just not quite big enough to host all of their guests and loved ones. Are you one of those homeowners dreaming for a larger space to call home?
You may have enough equity in your current home to move up.
According to the Q3 2019 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report by ATTOM Data Solutions,
“14.4 million residential properties in the United States were considered equity rich, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loans secured by those properties was 50 percent or less of their estimated market value.”
This means that one in four of the 54 million mortgaged homes in the U.S. has at least 50% equity. If these homeowners decide to sell, they can use their equity to put toward the purchase of a new home. Maybe you’ll be one of them.
NAR recently released their 2019 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers showing that,
“This year, home sellers cited that they sold their homes for a median of $60,000 more than they purchased it, up from $55,500 the year prior. This accounted for a 31 percent price gain, up from 29 percent the year before.”
Here’s the equity gain breakdown based on the number of years these sellers lived in their homes
Bottom Line
If you’re one of the many homeowners with big dreams of owning a larger home, let’s get together. Working with a trusted advisor to find out how much equity you have is a great first step in putting your move-up plan in motion.
